First Snow
What's funny is how different your perspective can be if it is your first experience. My girlfriend lived in Southern California all her life, so she never has really experienced snowfall like this. She really seemed to enjoy it ... that was until this morning.
She woke me up this morning asking for the password to my work computer. I was groggy, so I didn't know why on earth she was asking for it. Was she a corporate spy? Was she going to try and hack in to commit corporate espionage and steal all of my company's secrets? I asked her why on earth she needed to know and she explained she needed to e-mail work because she couldn't make it in (our home computer doesn't work with her company's webmail). She then informed me that my company's campus was closed for the day. That got my attention and I got up to see what was going on.
It turns out that Seattle can't deal with snow very well. I guess it doesn't happen often enough for them to have good infrastructure to deal with it. When I was in NY and NJ, I would expect the streets to be clear and salted down by the morning. It was perfect safe to drive, as the streets were cleared well before it was time to go to work. Not the case in Redmond.
I even tried to get into work in the afternoon, expecting most of the ice to be clear off of the roads. Still not. At one point, on a hill, I hit the gas and my tires spun for a few seconds before they gripped and allowed me to move on.
Priced Out Forever
Now let's just look at the logic of that statement. There is little argument here that housing is quite expensive and out of the reach of many people. In the more popular areas in the country, house prices start in the 30oK - 400K range, which, by traditional measures, should require a six-figure income.
So if housing is that expensive, and housing always goes up, then logic would dictate that if you can barely afford it now, you better get in before its too late. But does that actually make any sense? Of course not. Just imagine what the world would be like if it were true.
Say that at some point housing becomes so expensive that all people who earn less than $50,000 (Slightly above the national Household average) are permanently priced out of the market and all people who can and want to buy have bought a house. Now someone who owns a starter home has a growing family and wants to move up, who do they sell the house to? By definition, they can't sell it to a family who is looking to own rather than rent. They can only sell to people who have previously owned a home. But people in general don't downgrade their home, so they have to sell to someone who is moving laterally (like someone moving into the city). So all that we get is stagnation, people just keep swapping houses, and nobody can move up because there is nobody below to sell to.
This of course implies that the supply of housing stays constant, which it isn't. It can be disproved by looking outside at all the cranes building high-rise condominiums or the construction crews putting up new housing tracts. I also highly doubt that home builders such as KB and Toll brothers plan on shutting their doors. New homes will be constructed, and these homes are going to have to be purchased by someone.
This is the key observation. All bubbles eventually end because supply catches up and surpasses demand. They don't end form a lack of demand. Builders willl see that there is an underserved market, this very large segment consisting of young middle class families, and cater to them by making affordable housing. It is next to impossible that you ever become "priced out forever" for an asset as common as housing.
Higher than Normal My Ass
I've probably contacted them six or seven times in a three day stretch and very different hours of the day ranging from early in the morning to very late at night. I find it very hard to believe that it is just a coincidence that each time I call is the time where suddenly traffic is higher than normal which can only lead me to believe that Comcast is full of it. If your "higher than normal" is happening all the time, that is your normal. Quit lying to me and just tell me that you don't care how long I wait on the phone.
Portland: My Take
The best thing about the city was that it was in Oregon, and therefore had no sales tax. Even though I would probably advocate replacing our income tax with a national sales tax, it was still nice to do some tax-free shopping. It was especially nice to have tax free dining since Seattle has an even higher tax on dining out than the normal sales tax.
So what didn't I like about the city? Again, it wasn't any one thing. I didn't like that the city wasn't particularly clean. Many of the buildings seemed kind of run down or old. Even the hotel we stayed at, which is supposed to be one of the nicest in Portland, the Governor, seemed kind of old. Besides that, there wasn't many things to do except to go shopping and there weren't any real sites that you had to go see. The pickings for restaurants was pretty bad as my girlfriend and I couldn't find a decent non-chain restaurant.
The other thing I didn't like about the city is that I didn't feel particularly safe. We walked around at night trying to find something to do (more on that later), and went through some neighborhoods that I didn't feel particularly comfortable walking through. It's like that in most big cities I've been in (with the exception ironically of NYC) so maybe I shouldn't be too hard on Portland.
And then finally, if you don't want to go to a strip club (there were an inordinate amount in Portland) or go tax-free shopping, there wasn't a lot of interesting things to do. Most major cities have something you have to go do or see. Didn't feel that way about Portland.
So overall, it was a disappointment. Glad to cross it off my list, don't think I'll be heading back.
That's Why It's Called a Beta!
In both cases, the individual came to tell me how crappy my product is. In each case they were dealing with Beta software. Now I could take constructive criticism. It is after all a beta and it is used to solict feedback. But in both cases, the individual responded with great indignation and anger that the product didn't work the way that it should.
Seriously folks. If you don't want to be inconveinenced, don't use a BETA product!
Individuals are Smart; Groups are Stupid
There was a booth next to mine that was giving out free shirts so I decided to try and get one. BIG MISTAKE. The following is not an exaggeration.
I got in the back of a large crowd waiting to get shirts. I figured it would be orderly since I work at a company where people in general are smart and respectful. As I wanted people who got behind me started to push me. Soon, pushing turned into shoving as people were swarming to get the free shirt. Several of the people in the crowd (I should refer to them as a mob) already had SEVERAL shirts but were trying to get more. The guy next to me, screaming, "I want a shirt" even though he already had one, tried to grab a shirt out of another guy's hand.
I couldn't believe what was going on so I simply turned around and left. These are people with very good jobs, making very good money, fighting over a $5 shirt. Not just fighting over it, but being VERY rude to their fellow coworkers over it. Unbelieveable. Just goes to show you what happens when people get into large groups and the word "free" is being used.
Paintball
Now that I'm home and got to shower up one thing really sticks out, all the bruises I got. Everywhere where I got shot there is a pretty sizable and dark bruise. Since I don't play very often (or ever) I don't have the gear that most people probably have to prevent such bruises.
All in all, even with the bruises, I would still go play again.
Old Alumni
we encourage all young alumni (2001-2006) and undergraduates to come
Considering that I'm just outside that range, I have to admit, I felt a little old that I'm no longer considered a "young alumni". I mean, when the heck did that happen?
Negotiating a Better Salary
My girlfriend recently got a job offer. She was happy to take it for what they offered, but I convinced her to ask for more; I mean the worse that would happen was that they said no. So after making a counter-offer, they counter-offered back, and she accepted. She ended up getting a little bit more money then they offered, but not quite what she wanted.
I have always done the same thing. I have never taken the first offer that somebody gave me. They always say, "Our first offer is normally our best offer" but that's a load of crap. If that is true, how come each time I've tried to renegotiate I got more money?
Maybe I'm fortunate. Maybe I'm just so super-special that people just want to throw more money at me. I'm curious if people have had any experiences where they asked for more money, and they didn't get at least a little bit more.
Working with Unfinished Wood
This weekend, I learned why furniture is so expensive. I use to always think they were ripping you off, now I'm not so sure.I bought a piece of unfinished furniture last week. It was a dresser drawer. I have dark wood in my bedroom so finding furniture that looks good, matches, and is inexpensive is a real challenge. I decided that I would buy an unfinished piece and stain it myself and therefore save some money. I like working with my hands so figured it would be a fun project as well.
Let me tell you, it really isn't all that easy and can take a great deal of time. It is also messy and you have to deal with the cleanup after you are done. If you factor in all the time and materials above and beyond the actual piece of furniture, I can definitely see why furniture can be so expensive.
Too Busy - Nothing to Say
Ben Roethlisberger's Motorcycle Accident
The last few days have seen an explosion in hits from Google for Kevin Winslow. It seems that I'm the most relevant result for what most people are looking for, the Cleveland Browns tight end, not some reproductive endocrinologist.The reason this search has become so popular lately is that Ben Roethlisberger, quarterback for the Superbowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, was in a motorcycle accident much like Kevin Winslow had one year ago. I still contend, how stupid do you have to be to get on a motorcycle when you make MILLIONS based on your ability to be in top physical condition.
I'm glad that Ben is OK. He has some injuries but it doesn't look too serious. He is VERY fortunate to not be dead considering he wasn't wearing a helmet. And even though I like Ben much more than I like Kevin Winslow, I won't shed a tear if he doesn't play in another NFL game (his injuries do not look serious enough to even keep him out this year). We all make choices in life and Ben's choice was to get on that bike without a helmet. Just explain to me why getting on a bike is worth potentially losing millions of dollars for a job most would be willing to do for free.
Soda Machine Instructions
However, in one instance, there is a building that has a soda machine. The soda machine does not take any money so you simply have to push a button and a free soda is dispensed. However, on this machine there are actually instructions on what to do. They are verbatim:
Instructions for Free Soda:
- Select and push button of desired soda
- Allow soda to drop
- Reach in and remove soda from machine
- Please remove 1 soda from machine
It Pays to be Nice to People
My girlfriend really likes watching the show Top Chef. I don't particularly like reality type shows or shows about food but sinse she likes it, I tend to watch it with her.This year, the final came down to two chefs, Tiffany and Harold. Both were really good chefs and prepared in my mind excellent final meals. However, in the end Harold won.
During the final competition, the judges liked that Tiffany really took some chances by preparing 10 courses, 2 menus of a 5 course meal, rather than just the 5 that were asked for. However, in the end she lost to Harold, who probably had the better overall meal but didn't take the chances that Tiffany did.
But really in the end I was glad Tiffany lost. She was, plain and simple, a bitch. I don't understand why people feel a need to be mean in order to get what they want. Throughout the series, she would yell at people in the kitchen. She took the attitude of, "I'm goign to win and damn everyone else in my way." It was as if in her mind, she could only succeed if everyone else failed.
Harold was ultra-competitive too but let his skill shine over others rather than try to diminish the competition. The final competition had the 4 runner-ups choose who they wanted to help between Harold and Tiffany. It was clear that they probably would have all prefered to work with Harold and in the end, all four told the judges they thought Harold should win Top Chef. Though I'm sure the two who helped Tiffany were professional, they probably did not put the same effort that the two who were helping Harold.
I just don't understand why people feel a need to be mean to others. What purpose does it really serve? It really isn't any harder to be nice to people. I don't feel that my life is any more difficult because I try to be nice to people. There are times I can't be friendly simply because the situation doesn't dictate it. But in 95% of situations, it isn't any harder to just be nice. I'm just glad that finally it paid off for someone to be nice.
Changes at Microsoft: A New Employee Perspective
I'm a relatively new Microsoft employee. I've only been with the company for a few months, so I have a limited perspective about the changes that have recently been announced. For those who don't work at Microsoft, Microsoft has started an initiative to address the very serious problem of employee retention. It seems there are many Microsoft employees who have been unhappy with the current setup. A summary can be found at Mini-Microsoft. For those who are not associated with Microsoft here are the highlights.
- The Curve is gone (sort of) - Microsoft had this system where you were graded on a curve from 2.5 to 5.0. Managers were forced to rank people and could only give out so many 5.0, 4.5, etc. That meant that if you were on a really strong team, and worked your ass off, you might still only be judged a 3.0 or slightly worse than average. This affected your compensation and bonuses.
- More stock awards - Microsoft announced they will give out more stock awards to the very best performers. Stock bonuses are still based on a curve which will have a forced distribution. This is why the curve is only sort of gone.
- Towels are back - I'm new so I never missed them but this got a lot of applause at the town hall meeting. I don't get what the big deal is about towels but I suppose it is symbolic of how Microsoft was screwing employees by taking away benefits. It is one of those small things that have an unproportinal negative reaction.
- More workplace benefits – Microsoft has added even more workplace services like longer cafeteria hours, dry cleaning, and grocery delivery (all services employees must pay for)
There are a few more initiatives but this captures the highlights and the things that seem to be getting the most attention from Microsoft employees.
So here is my take as a new Microsoft employee.
The Curve is the most controversial thing at Microsoft. People hated it. I don’t necessarily have a problem with it. I think employees need to be differentiated. Not everyone can be a top performer. It’s just not possible. That being said, I think its silly that you have to tie someone’s review score to some forced distribution. If you really are a good contributor on a great team, you should not be penalized against someone who is a OK performer on a really weak team. Further the idea that your score follows you for the lifetime of your Microsoft employment seems a little ridiculous in my mind. I could understand if your most recent review score had an impact on your current one but the idea that you have some sort of Lifetime average seems wrong in my mind. This is coming from a guy who has always historically done very well in his career and had the intention of always being ranked among the best.
However the curve is not gone, and I don’t believe it should be. Stock bonuses are still going to be distributed on a forced distribution with the very best getting the best rewards. I know some people hate this idea but quite frankly those are the people who you might not want to work with anyway. Look, you have to pay top performers more money. Top performers drive a company. If you don’t pay them, someone else will, and then you get a company full of good but not great employees. But even that will cause the only good people to leave as they are now the ones who bear the burden of work but don’t reap the rewards. If I do not end up being one of the top performers who get the most rewards so be it. I don’t care what the reason. People complain that the rewards simply fall to not the best workers, but the workers who are best at kissing ass. So be it. If this happens to me, I will simply leave the company. I would refuse to work at a company who is going to reward kissing ass over my hard work.
A loud complaint is that base compensation was not discussed and there seems to be no plan in the works to increase this. My reaction, tough. The comment I hate the most is “I could get x% more working at Google.” My response is, why don’t you go work for Google then? First off, most of the people complaining probably couldn’t get a job at Google, if they could they would jump ship immediately. And even if they could, they probably would not get the pay increase they would expect. But seriously, why complain about it? We live in a free society. If you can get more money somewhere else, there must be a reason for you to stay at Microsoft. Microsoft can’t force you to stay. I don’t care what the reason is. I don’t care if it’s a personal reason like you can’t leave the Seattle area for whatever reason. There clearly is not incentive enough for you to change your job, and that choice is solely yours. So quit complaining about it.
And the towels. I just don’t get it. I don’t get why it was ever a big deal. It is one of the first rules of benefits at a company. Don’t start a benefit if you think you may have to someday take it away. Why? People love to bitch about how things use to be and complain very loudly when even the smallest benefit is taken away.
Let me give all MS employees some perspective. We work at one of the best companies in the world. If you took the average compensation of all MS employees, it would have to be among the highest in the world. We get so many benefits, I don’t even know where to begin. The health plan is ridiculously comprehensive. The work schedule is extremely flexible. We get discounts on products we actually want to use. Free gym membership. Free soda. Free bus pass. The list seriously goes on and on. How can I say this? Because I’ve worked at other places. I’ve seen what is on the other side and believe me, the grass is not always greener. I worked four years at my last company and didn’t get half the benefits I do today. A worse health plan, no stock awards, no discounts. I was even lucky to get a free lunch once a year, and I was a manager with a budget! Compensation? That was a joke. I was one of the lucky ones that got a raise during my tenure there and that was because I got a huge promotion.
I seriously think that people that those that are the most dissatisfied working at Microsoft should go find another job. I am not saying that to be mean. I hope that if you do leave (and you are a top performer) you come back to Microsoft some day. You just need to get some perspective.
I’m not saying Microsoft is perfect. Even in my short time here, I’ve realized that there are some serious problems that should probably be addressed. I hope to help be part of the change that revitalizes this company and turns it around. But the notion that somehow, Microsoft does not do right by its employees is just plain wrong. If you think otherwise, I know Google is hiring.
For Whom Are Rising Home Prices Good For?
1. People who need to take out a loan on their house to cover cost that they would otherwise incur anyway.
If you need to take out a home equity loan to cover cost that you would have incurred without the house, than this may be of some advantage to you. You will be able to cover the cost of that expense and have a relatively low interest payment which may (but most likely is not) tax deductible). However. If you use the loan to actually increase your consumption more than you normally would, this is not advantageous to you. This includes things like buying a new car, remodeling your house, etc. Regardless if you get to deduct the interest, YOU ARE STILL PAYING INTEREST! I swear, I don't know any other part of life where people get excited to save $0.25 by spending a $1.00.
2. People who sell their house and rent
Everybody else loses. If you sell your house to buy another house, you are gaining nothing and in all likelihood lose because you are paying higher fees (commissions) due to higher prices. The house you are buying in all likelihood appreciated too and probably appreciated more so since most people trade up. In fact, rising home prices may very well hurt you because you are going to pay more in property tax. Your house will be assessed at the higher value and you will pay more in tax. You didn't actually become wealthier, so you are for all practical purposes worse off.
If you are a first time home buyer it is pretty obvious that you are getting screwed.
Otherwise, if you own your home and plan to live in it, like most Americans, price appreciation does nothing for you. It may make you warm and fuzzy at night thinking about all those mythical gains, but until you sell your home and actually don't buy another, rising prices don't help you one bit.
Note: This is not necessarily a rhetorical question. If you can think of an instance where someone who plans on living in their house actually benefits from price appreciation other than the above, I would love to know. I've been really trying to think of a scenario.
The Gas Rebate
The plan would work by giving as a one-time rebate to each taxpayer of $100. Of course nothing comes for free, the plan would cost an estimated $10 billion. To pay for this, gas companies would be taxed on their oil reserves.
People. Think About It. This idea makes no sense. It makes about as much sense as having a "windfall" tax on oil companies. There is NO way to be sure who pays the burden of a tax. Just because someone writes a check for the tax does not mean he actually bears the burden. Faced with this additional cost of a tax, what do you think the oil companies would do? Do you really thnk they will just sit there and let their profits take a hit? We have seen quite conclusively that consumers are willing to pay whatever is necessary to drive their cars. Is it really hard to imagine that oil companies will pass on the cost of the tax to the consumer? What makes it worse is that it might actually cost the consumers MORE than they get in the rebate when you factor in overhead cost and the like.
Any plan to try and help consumers at the pump is a political show. They only thing that will work is for either oil companies to somehow increase the amount of oil they are finding and producing or for consumers to demand less gasoline. Anything else is just an accounting trick.
What will $32 Billion Buy?
- All of Starbucks
- The GDP of Oman (or any of about 2/3 of the world's countries)
- 170,000 SL65 AMG Mercedes Roadsters
- 20 million three stone Tiffany engagement rings
- 246 Million Pairs of Kobe Sneakers
- 640 Million Ruth Chris Steaks
- 32 Billion Ipod Songs (30x more than have been sold to date)
Your Mortgage Deduction - How you really Lose
The middle class loves the mortgage deduction. They think its a great deal because they end up saving so much on their taxes.
I'm not here to debate that an individual doesn't on the surface save on their taxes because of the mortgage deduction but people don't realize that their mortgage deduction may actually cost them more than they save in the big picture. A recent study released shows that the top 2.2% of tax returns claim 22% of the benefits.
Think about it. The richest people benefit the most. They have larger mortgages thus more to deduct. They are in a higher tax bracket therefore save more with each deduction. The problem is compounded further because most middle-class Americans DO NOT receive the full value of the deduction!
Let me say that again because most people don't get it. Most middle-class Americans DO NOT receive the full value of the deduction! To achieve full value of the deduction, you must have OTHER deductions totaling more than the standard deduction. The standard deduction for 2005 is $5000. $10000 for married couples. Do you know many people who have $5,000 of itemized deductions? Believe me, most do not. So until you breach the $5,000 mark, your deductions are meaningless; you are better off taking the standard deduction. Even if your mortgage interest (Only mortgage interest is deductible. You wouldn't believe how many people believe the entire payment is deductible) is say $10,000 this year, you don't just lop off $10,000 from your taxable income, you may be able to deduct only $8,000 of that. If you are in the 25% tax bracket you just saved $2,050. Not a small sum but not huge either considering $10,000 in mortgage interest.
Now think about the rich. They easily have $5,000 in deductions from other sources. State taxes alone probably account for this sum. Add on investment expenses, charitable contributions, and business expenses and most of the rich have no problem breaking the standard deduction barrier BEFORE their mortgage interest deduction. They have a bigger house, and larger mortgage, so let's say they spend $50,000 in mortgage interest. They get to deduct this amount fully from their income and at a higher rate, 35%. They save $17,500 from this deduction. Compared with $2,500 for the middle-class person with the smaller mortgage. They benefit 7x more from the deduction and they don't even "need" it!
All the money they don't pay has to come from somewhere. Every dollar they are able to avoid comes from someone else's pocket. That pocket is yours.
This is why I don't like government. People are so worried about their own individual problem that they don't see the bigger problem. If the government were to repeal the mortgage interest deduction (which I would love to see but don't think they should because of the inherent unfairness) those protesting the loudest would be those who are most hurt by the deduction itself. They make you think you are getting a great deal when in the end, you are the one carrying the largest burden.
If I Were a Despot
1. I would make sure you couldn't escape it.
What is the point of collecting taxes if you can escape the tax.? Taxing cigarettes and booze is silly because if you want, you can not use those products. However, If I tax income, there is pretty much no way out of it. You have to earn money to live and if I tax your income you have very little way to avoid paying my tax, unless you were already wealthy and no longer had to earn income.
2. I would make sure you paid it even if you died
Nothing as certain as death and taxes right? I'm going to make sure taxes are even more certain. When you die, I am going to tax your estate. You are dead, you won't need the money. Leaving it to your heirs? Please, everything you have is mine.
3. I would make sure you paid it on income you didn't even really "earn"
I don't care what form of "income" you have. If someone gives you a gift, I'm going to tax it. If you win a new car, that is making you better off (and is therefore income) so I'm going to tax that too.
4. I would make sure you didn't know how much you were paying
Before you even get your paycheck, I'm going to take my share of it. Knowing human nature, I know if you never see it you won't realize how much in taxes you are paying. Further, I'm going to tax other things like Corporate income and the like. You won't ever directly see the cost of this since this will only raise the price you pay for goods. Ingenious!
5. I would make sure the burden would be placed directly on you to comply with my plan
My tax plan probably needs to be really complex to make all of this work and make sure I can extract all the money I can from you. But no way do I want to take the time to figure out what you owe me; I'll leave that up to you. Therefore I'll pick a date, say April 15th (or maybe the 17th if the 15th is on a Saturday), that you will be responsible for figuring out how much money you should have given me. If you should have given me less, I'll give you some money back (interest free of course). However if you screw up you will get stiff penalties and I will force you to pay me that and the taxes you owe me (with interest).
6. I would make sure it was so horribly complex you would never understand it
If you actually are able to understand how to comply I might not get all the money I need from you and you may find ways to pay less. Further, the more complex I make it the easier it will be for me to change it and get more money from you.
7. I would make sure I could easily change the plan to extract even more taxes from you
I would probably change some part of the tax code every year. I might change the tax on things like dividends to make them more attractive. I might change the tax brackets or remove various deductions. The code will however be so complex and so esoteric that you won't even bother to really understand it and just pay me whatever I tell you to pay me.
8. I would make sure I could lower the taxes for my friends while at the same time thinking you are getting the better deal.
I would do things like create tax breaks that seem to work for the common man but in reality they work best for my rich friends like myself. I could probably implement this by doing something like allowing you to deduct interest on a big ticket item. Say your house. Of course, you won't be able to get full benefit out of this because you won't really spend more than your standard deduction. However, my rich friends, with big houses and mortgages, and with multiple houses on top of that, will benefit far more than the average person. The average person won't realize that they are paying for my rich friend's tax break. They will only see their relatively small deduction and feel good about it. Given their lack of understanding of my tax code, they will fight tooth and nail to save this deduction all the while not realizing how much they are really paying to have it.
9. Even if you try to leave the country, I will still make you pay the tax
I will decree that even if you leave the country to try and avoid my tax, your rightful duty as a citizen is to pay me the tax. I don't care if you work in a foreign country for 20 years, if you are a citizen of my great land it is your duty to pay me the tax.
Sounds awful doesn't it? I'm glad this system doesn't really exist.